For more information about our data practices consult our Privacy Policy. The first player drafted in nearly all drafts is going to be a running back.
It should be Christian McCaffrey. Don't overthink it. There might be 10 running backs drafted in the first round in your league -- including the first seven or eight picks. This is going to be a very RB-heavy year at the top of drafts, with an unusually strong crop of players with legitimate three-down skills to pick from until at least the third round in most drafts.
At this point, we know running backs are riskier than the other positions -- they get hurt more, and, because their production is so dependent on factors outside of their control -- game plan, game script, coaching, blocking, playing time, role, etc.
However, that's not true for all running backs. In fact, over the last five years, the top running backs have been pretty good bets:. The trend is pretty clear: The first half dozen or so running backs drafted over the last five seasons have generally been pretty great. Among the first six RB drafted each season, only three out of 30 failed to score plus points while staying mostly healthy.
That crop of RBs tend to be very, very good investments -- they combine that point upside with the must-start floor. That's what you want from your first-round pick. After that? It's a pretty mixed bag. Taking one of the second tier running backs dropped your chances of getting a must-start player by about half.
And for the rest of the position, you're looking at even worse odds. You weren't even getting coin-flip odds when drafting from the RB2 range; it was more like trying to flip heads twice in a row.
Okay, but not all draft classes are made equal, right? This RB class is strong! The No. Where a player is drafted among his positional peers only tells you so much about how good he is.
The difference is even more stark with tight ends, where just two players—Travis Kelce and Darren Waller—had more than points in PPR leagues. Even among receivers, one of the most plentiful positions in all of fantasy football , there were only three players north of points in PPR formats last year.
There are exceptions to this rule. For instance, if your league puts more weight on passing touchdowns — i. In both cases, stud running backs are still going to be the first guys off the board.
Position scarcity also makes tight ends valuable. For these leagues, it would not be a reach to take someone like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers late in the first round and into the second, depending on what other players are still available. And it might be a good idea to think about a QB2 shortly after that. Remember, there are only 32 starting quarterbacks in any given week fewer in most weeks because of byes , whereas you can still find a contributing wide receiver on the waiver wire in a pinch.
Deciding on whether to draft a runner or wideout will be based on the best player available between the two. In the mock, I took Keenan Allen. Olsen or Kelce are options at tight end, but you have to determine if their value is greater than that of the available runners and receivers. I passed on both of them in the mock in favor of rookie T. Yeldon , who figures to be a three-down back in his first season in Jacksonville. The Alabama product has the upside to emerge into a No. The same goes for wideouts.
If either Kelce or Olsen is still on the board, I would jump on the best available option. Otherwise, I'm likely to wait a bit longer on a tight end. You should also be looking at how many quarterbacks have been drafted at this time.
There shouldn't be more than five or six picked, so you can still wait if you haven't landed Brees or Manning in a recent round.
If you're still in need at quarterback, I'd consider taking Cam Newton in this round. Otherwise, continue to build depth at runner and wideout. That's nice depth. You'll be amazed at the number of good signal-callers that are still on the board at this point, including the likes of Ben Roethlisberger , Tony Romo and Tom Brady although his stock is on the rise.
If you feel like you can wait another round or two on that position, Bennett is a good choice at tight end. In fact, he was the player I landed in this round during our mock. In the expert's league, I waited to draft a quarterback until this point and was still able to land Newton.
If you already took a quarterback and still lack a tight end, then that's the position you should target. If you have already grabbed a signal-caller and a tight end in one of the first nine rounds, then you can also continue to build on runners maybe a top handcuff and wide receivers with this pick.
That gives you some options to choose from in terms of your next selection s. Each player listed can outscore some of the pass catchers being drafted earlier in round 2. Unless you have back-to-back picks at 24 and 25, be aware that if you select a receiver with your second-round pick, your RB2 target might not be there just a few picks later.
Positional scarcity can drive your opponents' draft decisions. Don't reach, but if Gibson or Edwards-Helaire is there for you at the 24—25 turn, take them first. There's much more receiver depth early in the third round. If there's a run on running backs early in your draft and for some reason, you can't land one of those RB targets, double up at receiver and wait on a running back.
Pivot and take the best of what's available to you. You can even consider one of the elite tight ends not named Kelce in the second or third rounds— Darren Waller or George Kittle.
It's better to lock up the best players available in this scenario than reach too far for guys like Darrell Henderson, Josh Jacobs or Myles Gaskin. In rounds 4 and 5, you can go a couple of different ways.
You'll most likely want to round out your WR2, WR3 and flex spots. There are still very good receivers to be had at this point. Julio Jones , Chris Godwin , D. There's likely going to be at least a full-round wait for this group after Kittle or Waller are selected. If you don't want one of these top six guys, you should feel comfortable waiting a few more rounds or more to take a tight end.
If you're still without an RB2 in round 5, these might not be the rounds to figure out that position. You can consider a running back with pass-catching upside like Chase Edmonds , Travis Etienne or Kareem Hunt , but there are not many backs in this range you'd want to rely on weekly. Consider waiting another round for a Javonte Williams or Damien Harris.
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